Future Development Scenarios
uThe research report used the UNEP Global Environmental Outlook “conventional development scenario” as its forecast.
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uThis scenario presents us with a number of outcomes that are directly relevant for the future of environmental employment.
u - growth in consumption and production exceeds gains from productivity improvements. 
u - agricultural efficiency will increase, but food demand will increase further.
u - greenhouse targets will not be met.
u - agricultural land will increase from one-third to one-half of the land area.
u - global demand for water will increase.
u - urban expansion will continue
u - six-fold increase in demand for materials.
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*   show the scenarios overhead
*   energy efficiency will increase by a factor of 1.2 by 2015, but energy demand will increase by 1.8
*   agricultural efficiency will increase by a factor of 1.2 by 2015, but food demand will increase by a factor of 1.5
*   there will be a 50% increase in 1990 levels of greenhouse gases in Asia by 2015.
*   ag land will increase from one-third to one-half of land area by 2050.
*   by 2025 54 countries could face water stress.
*   world oil production will peak in 2010 when half the exploitable resource base will be gone.
*   urban areas will grow from 45% in 1995 to 55% in 2015.
*   six-fold increase in material demand.